Considering the tendencies of SONY to come up with more and more annoying copy protections*, their decision to use old fashioned MPEG2 codec for Blue-Ray, the fact that HD-DVD will use new generation of MPEG4 H.264 and that Toshiba announced their HD-DVD player will be cheaper, the situation is fairly different from VHS/Betacam duel. VHS was cheaper AND inferior in quality.
So far it seems to me, HD-DVD will bring more effective technology to provide better picture and sound on cheaper medias (and what else would be the reason to dump DVD and upgrade to the new technology, right?), while SONY is expected to get a large support of other big distribution companies, which can mean movies will be released and re-released more often on BR..
On the other hand, Microsoft\'s support of HD-DVD...
Time will tell, I guess. But really, since the HD-DVD brings better technology for (as it seems now) less money, IMHO the only thing that will keep Blue-Ray going is SONY marketing. I kinda expect the minidisc fate will happen to BR too, sooner or later.
* As for the CP, I\'m not saying that HD-DVD won\'t have some really stupid and annoying protection. The stuff Microsoft put into their new Windows Vista shows that it\'s gonna be a lot of fun to make it work on your PC. As for Linux users, someone will either have to crack those CP systems again, or they\'ll have to get used to the fact that although they buy HD-DVD, it will play only in DVD quality on their system. If they are lucky.